Dean+Cahill

__**October 28, 2015:**__
Staying in the democratic party for this journal, I'll just get my Bernie analysis out of the way now.

Bernie Sanders has been gaining a lot of popularity amongst the youth of the nation, and is actually branching party lines in support. This is because of a campaign centered on policy and an anti-establishment, anti corruption

message. A lot of the anti-Sanders rhetoric is due to his message of "socialism," which is somewhat of a strawman, as Sanders has the policies and beliefs as a Social Democrat, which can be better described as a hybrid of

capitalism and socialism. Sanders has recently come out in support of the legalization of marijuana, the creation of a national holiday centered around elections (to increase voter turnout), and is the candidate fighting the most

vehemently against the TPP, especially after the full text of the document was released.

But the important thing to ask is, can he win? We need to cover this in two parts for the most substantive discussion of Bernie's chances.

In terms of the democratic primary, Bernie has a hard fight ahead of him. Hillary is a political juggernaut, and her name recognition, combined with the progressive rhetoric that she is also pushing (partly due to Sanders himself),

seem to show that she is set for the nomination. However, Bernie has gained a monumental amount of traction. From drawing massive crowds, to breaking records in terms of the amount of donations he has received, Bernie has

developed one of the largest grassroots campaigns that has been seen in american politics. However, with polls looking the way they are, it doesn't look like Bernie is going to win the democratic nomination.

In terms of the general election, it has been shown that the primary is Bernie's biggest problem. If he can manage to beat Hillary, it is more likely than not that the general wouldn't be a blatant loss. Compared to both of the

republican frontrunners, Carson and Trump, Sanders has been shown to poll within the margin of error. While technically he ties with Hillary when compared to both of those, he leads her by 1-2% within the margin of error. No other

candidates really matter, in terms of speculation this early on in the race.

__**October 14, 2015:**__
With the democratic debate recently passed, I figured I'd switch gears and cover a candidate from the other side of the political spectrum. So, without further adieu, we go to...Hillary Clinton.

Let me just put a disclaimer right here. Hillary is my least favorite Democratic candidate, and I'm probably going to vote for Jill Stein (Green Party, might cover if I have extra time) if Hillary wins the nomination. Whether or not that is "throwing away my vote" is beside the point. I'm going to use this as an excuse to talk about the bipartisanship of corruption.

Hillary is leading in the DNC polls. By a lot. She has a lot of name recognition, being the former FLOTUS. Her views are basically in line with Bill's, being a slightly liberal establishment democrat (though she has moved further to the left with the rise of Bernie in the polls and the realization that America IS becoming more liberal.) But that on itself isn't enough to hold a 20 point lead.

https://www.opensecrets.org/politicians/contrib.php?cid=N00000019&cycle=Career

That'll be all for today.

__**October 5, 2015:**__
I figured that we'd stay in the GOP for a while, as there are a lot of republicans that need to be covered compared to the democrats. That being the case, the second candidate that I am going to cover is Dr. Ben Carson. A national poll has Carson at second to Trump, only trailing by five points. Following our formula, we shall look at Dr. Carson's beliefs, qualifications, and whether or not he can win. I like to refer to Carson as the "Smart man's Trump," because he has a lot of the rhetoric that Trump brings, but in a more polished and leveled way. That's not to say that he makes sense all of the time, and often uses outlandish analogies to make points, but he is still a lot more eloquent in his delivery and policy than Trump. Carson is a very religious candidate, believing that the tax code should be based on the tithing that the Bible suggests, and his stance against same-sex marriage being based in his religion. Now, Dr. Carson is a very smart man and a tremendously talented neurosurgeon, but as with Trump, we must separate the work from the policy. Carson has said a multitude of things that are blatantly wrong, and doubles down on them (the conviction of which i can't help but respect in today's politicized climate) even when presented with evidence. The most recent example of this is when Carson alluded to a Muslim president as unconstitutional, when in fact there is, very clearly in the constitution, NO RELIGIOUS TEST for office. This is definitely a black mark against Carson from a progressive perspective, but there are many who share the sentiment, so it may have been a smart political move on Carson's part. I think Carson could very well close the gap between Trump and himself. He merely needs to play his cards right and inculcate himself as a smarter, more sophisticated and eloquent Trump. Whether or not he does this is merely a matter of time.

In case you were curious, here's Ben Carson's Politifact file.

__**September 23, 2015:**__
Donald Trump. That's really all I should have to say. We all know about the loose cannon, anti-PC "Frankenstein of the Republican Party" that has been destroying in the polls recently. The RCP Average polling from Iowa as of 8/26 -> 9/20 has trump at about 27.3% of voters, up 6 points in the past two weeks. So what are his beliefs, and can he keep this lead through the primaries? Trump is known to be "anti-PC" which is one of the biggest reasons that he has such a following. He's not afraid to say what he wants, even at the risk of being offensive. It's good that he has this quality, because a lot of his beliefs are offensive. His most known stance is on immigration. Trump wants to build a wall on the Mexico-US border and deport most, if not all, of the 11 million immigrants currently in the country. He also wishes to repeal the concept of "birthright citizenship," which says that anyone born on US soil is a citizen of the US, as stated in the 14th amendment of the constitution. Now, ignoring the fact that deporting 11 million people would be nearly impossible, and that the optics of it would be horrible if merely attempted, a lot of people (mainly in the South) get behind this rhetoric. Trump has also swayed to the other side of the spectrum, preaching of corruption in the system and the need for reform in politics. This cements his "outsider" figure and gives a lot of people who just want smaller government someone that they can trust to get that job done. While trump has said a lot, he's not entirely accurate. According to Politifact, 64% of Donald Trump's statements as of the first republican debate are either "False" or "Very False," though one could argue that that doesn't matter to voters.

Whether or not Trump has a chance of winning is independent of his beliefs. That should be obvious by now. People don't vote on policy. They vote for character. Trump is quite a character. He embodies a solution to everything that conservative america (and even a large portion of liberal america) sees wrong with the nation: corruption, overt political correctness, and the Establishment. While you can be against all of those things and still find Trump to be a tremendous idiot (see: http://www.thefreedictionary.com/basic+intelligence), a lot of people see him as the way out of the broken system.

__What Makes A Candidate Good?__
So I've decided to do these philosophical "op-eds" on the off-week of the learning journals. There is one for mostly every candidate, spanning from economics to applications of religion in the US today to corruption. The first one is going to revolve around Donald Trump.
 * NOT A LEARNING JOURNAL***

Trump is destroying the other GOP candidates. That is a simple matter of data. A gravis poll of Iowa has trump up 16 points to the runner up, Ben Carson. No one seems surprised by this, but the media still asks an important question: Why? There is speculation that Trump is tapping into a more "uber-conservative" base, and his rhetoric supports this claim. However, I think that there are two reasons for this. The first is that Trump is viewed as a successful businessman. People see wealthier people as smart by default, and Trump has hammered home how successful he has been. People are naturally drawn to his bravado and boldness. The second reason is another one that Trump himself has run on; he's not a politician. Both Trump and Carson have made a focus on being disconnected from the establishment of Washington, and they are both leading the GOP. This begs the question, is being anti-establishment enough to earn the presidency? For that matter, what makes a candidate worth the office? (note: this is not in reference to policy or opinions)

The most important thing that a candidate can do is have a central focus on policy over politics. A candidate cannot cut corners or lie in order to get re-elected. This is important because a focus on politics leads to gridlock and shutting down the government (ted cruz *cough*). Another important trait of a presidential hopeful is the ability to be subservient to the people. Not geoups of people, but THE PEOPLE as a whole. However, this brings an important argument to light; what should a president do if the will of the people is objectively wrong? Should they go down with the ship, or stand up and fight against the people? I would argue that they should do the will of the people, for the simple reason that America is a representative democracy, and the purpose of politicians is to, well, represent the people. These two traits are the most important aspects of a presidential candidate, and I'm sorry, but I don't think Trump has either of them.

__**September 11, 2015:**__
For this independent study, I have decided to do some political science research. I am going to be looking into the candidates from the 2016 presidential race, and analyzing both who I will vote for and who I believe is going to win. This will be done in a series of case studies into each candidate's views and polling data. I will be looking at sources such as Gallup, Pew research, and other various polling sources, as well as making charts of my own from their data, in order to analyze the candidates' chances of winning. I am going to be doing both Republican and Democratic candidates, and probably going to have sections of learning journals devoted to each debate.

An important thing to note; it is impossible for me to keep this 100% objective. While I will try to keep my personal opinions out of this (except for my reaction to each candidate's beliefs), it will be impossible for me to keep my bias away. Therefore, I should make it obvious as to my political stance. I am a liberal democratic socialist (not a full blown socialist), and I am basically as far left as you can get without being an actual socialist or communist. This is for both social and economic issues. That being said, my endorsement for Bernie Sanders will probably become more obvious as time passes. Keep these in mind while looking at the data and commentary I provide.

The first analysis will be the one and only Donald Trump.